NFL 2006 Mid-Season Report Revisited

It never fails. I make my mid-season predictions for the rest of the year, and that very weekend or the next it all falls apart. It's been a pretty bad design for prognosticators, at least this one. I think it's because there are no really dominant teams, and very few really bad teams. Rather just about everybody is in the vast muddled middle so you never know who will win. Anyway, let's do some corrections shall we.

AFC West
Denver has pretty much tanked since I took them to win the division and the conference (and the Super Bowl). With back-to-back losses against San Diego and Kansas City, they are now 1 1/2 games behind the Chargers and effectively 1/2 game behind the Chiefs (division record as tie-breaker). Assuming the Chargers can beat the Raiders, one of the few really bad teams, San Diego will open a 2 game lead in the division that so recently looked so tight.

The Chiefs have beaten San Diego already this season. But that was at home where the Chiefs have a strong advantage. The rematch will be in sunny California. In fact, three of KC's last five games are on the road. Their recent surge has been fueled by Larry Johnson's running. Can he keep up that pace for the rest of the year?

Denver will play three of it's last five at home, where they too have a good advantage. But the schedule isn't the easiest with games against the Seattle, Chargers, surging Bengals, and the surprising 49ers. Plus there will be a lot of uncertainty in Denver. Plummer has not had a strong season and there is the growing expectation that he will be benched in favor of Cutler.

So the Chargers look to be a pretty solid lock for the division title now.

NFC East
With McNabb out for the season, Philly is done. So I guess it doesn't come down to the Eagles and Giants after all. It comes down to the Giants and Cowboys, like I originally said. Dallas is playing very well. The defense is very strong and aggressive, ranking 7th in the league in points allowed. And what can one say about Romo. He is playing like a seasoned pro. Since taking his over as starter, Dallas is 4-1, with wins over Carolina and Indianapolis. The only loss was that fluke game with Washington where Dallas' winning field goal at the end turned into the Redskins' winning field goal at the end. Whenever they've kept the game off the foot of Vanderjagt, they've won.

The Giants, on the other hand, are struggling. Injuries have hit them hard, and Manning is in a slump. They've dropped two straight and play the Titans, who like to play giant killers, this weekend.

The division could well come down to next week's matchup between the two teams. The Giants won the first matchup, but that was with Bledsoe as the starter. Right now you have to go with the hot team, and that's Dallas.

NFC South
I was going to revise this division as well, with New Orleans losing last week and dropping to second place. But I stand by my prediction.

Playoff Predictions - AFC
The revised seedings will be

1. Indianapolis
2. San Diego
3. New England
4. Baltimore
5. Denver
6. Jacksonville

I debated the 5th spot. I can't go with KC because I don't think they can keep riding LJ the way they have. And their defense is still the Chief defense. In picking Denver, I'm assuming Plummer remains the starter, than Shanahan wouldn't change QBs in the middle of a playoff run.

I'm forced to predict San Diego win the conference now. What I wrote about the other teams in the conference stands. The Chargers are a well balanced team, with a strong defense, superb running game, and a quarterback who is playing quite well. I don't see the other teams in the conference taking them down.

Playoff Predictions - NFC
Revised standings:

1. Chicago
2. Seattle
   
3. Dallas
4. New Orleans
5. Carolina
6. New York

I still put the Seahawks at #2 because they have a soft schedule down the stretch.

I didn't write much about who would win the conference, putting Chicago well out in front. But the truth is they've been struggling a bit on offense for a while. Starting with the Cardinal game they nearly lost, the offense has done poorly several times, with the defense bailing out the team as it did last year. As well as Rex Grossman played early in the season, as I've pointed out many times, prior to this season, the man hadn't played as many as four straight games without a serious injury. He's now started 10 straight, with #11 coming Sunday. He hasn't played that many games in a row since college. What's worse, because of his injuries on being on IR so often, he hasn't even been in game planning. So starting so many games is both a physical and mental challenge and you have to wonder if it is starting to take its toll.

So if Chicago falters down the stretch and in the playoffs, the conference falls to Dallas.